mostlyright.markets.catalog.kalshi_economy

Kalshi Economics contract resolver (per-series agency-NAME routing).

Kalshi Economics markets (CPI, PPI, NFP, GDP, jobless claims, Fed decision, …) each settle against a specific agency’s first print. resolve(ticker) is the deterministic mapping from a Kalshi Economics series/contract ticker to an EconomyResolution (agency, indicator, settlement_grade, contract_terms_url) tuple that downstream code (research_economy()) uses to join the correct agency first-print row.

It mirrors mostlyright.markets.catalog.kalshi_nhigh — a frozen-dataclass result plus a deterministic resolve() with an up-front type guard, a ValueError on unknown tickers (it never returns None), and a __all__ of [ResultClass, "resolve"].

Routing is per-series, driven by the curated SETTLEMENT_ROUTING table — keyed on canonical Kalshi series root tickers and the agency names those roots settle to. The load-bearing case is the PPI family split: KXUSPPI (PPI MoM) settles to Trading Economics at settlement_grade=False while its sibling KXUSPPIYOY (PPI YoY) settles to BLS at settlement_grade=True. Assuming “the government first print” for the 48 Trading-Economics-settled series (KXUSPPI, KXUSNFP, and international variants) would mis-settle every one of them.

SSRF / sloppy-URL firewall: this resolver reads only the pre-curated agency names in SETTLEMENT_ROUTING. It never fetches or parses the Kalshi-supplied settlement-source URL field carried in series metadata — those URLs are demonstrably wrong live (KXPAYROLLS carries name="BLS" but a URL pointing at ppi.nr0.htm; one series’ URL points at “San Francisco Unified School District”). Routing on the URL would settle NFP contracts against PPI data, so routing uses the name only, from the curated table.

For a Trading-Economics-settled series the resolver only labels settlement_grade=False. It structurally cannot emit a fabricated Trading Economics number — EconomyResolution carries no value field; the value stays the agency first print produced by the economy package.

Functions

Function	Description
`resolve`(ticker)	Resolve a Kalshi Economics ticker to its settlement mapping.

Classes

Class	Description
`EconomyResolution`(agency, indicator, …)	The settlement mapping a Kalshi Economics contract resolves to.

class mostlyright.markets.catalog.kalshi_economy.EconomyResolution(agency, indicator, settlement_grade, contract_terms_url)

Bases: object

The settlement mapping a Kalshi Economics contract resolves to.

Parameters:
- agency (str)
- indicator (str)
- settlement_grade (bool)
- contract_terms_url (str)

agency

The canonical settlement-agency short name — one of the eleven AGENCY_NAMES. Six are US-facing ("BLS" / "BEA" / "DOL" / "FederalReserve" / "FRED" / "TradingEconomics") and five are the reference-area publishers ("ONS" / "StatCan" / "ECB" / "Eurostat" / "ABS"; "BIS" names the policy-rate compiler). Routed on the Kalshi settlement-source name, never the URL. The name is the PUBLISHER the rule claims, which is not always the transport: euro-area HICP names "Eurostat" while its rows carry source="ecb.sdmx".

indicator

The economy indicator id (same vocabulary as schema.economy.observations.v1). US ids are bare (cpi / cpi_core / cpi_yoy / nfp / u3 / gdp / ppi / ppi_yoy / jobless_claims / fed_funds / …); every other reference area prefixes its own (uk.cpi_yoy / ca.cpi_yoy / ea.policy_rate / au.cpi / …).

settlement_grade

True when the agency first print IS the settlement truth. False covers two distinct cases now, and the label is the same because the caller’s exposure is: the value returned is not the one the contract settles on, and it is labeled rather than fabricated. (1) A vendor-settled series, where the agency’s own print stands in for the source the exchange names — no Trading Economics value is ever invented. (2) A route with no as-published archive, where the publisher IS the one the exchange names but only the latest revision is recoverable — every ea.* rule is this case, including the two the exchange settles on the ECB and Eurostat themselves.

contract_terms_url

The trusted CFTC contract-terms PDF basename from the routing rule (e.g. "CPI.pdf"), or "" when the routing rule carries no PDF. This is a curated routing companion to the agency name; it is never a fetched or Kalshi-supplied settlement-source URL.

agency: `str`

contract_terms_url: `str`

indicator: `str`

settlement_grade: `bool`